The Canterbury floods pose a risk for the new season’s production outlook according to Westpac Senior Economist Nathan Penny who says with many farmers having lost winter feed during the floods, and feed stores already low given the earlier dry conditions any further adverse weather could be an issue. Nathan Penny is expecting a 2% lift in nationwide production next season, with the very strong milk price likely to drive production higher, even with compliance and regulatory constraints acting in the opposite direction. Westpac has adopted the midpoint of Fonterra’s updated forecast range  –  $7.55/kg and while the milk price can move modestly from this point of the season, generally movements are within 10 cents per kg either way.