Westpac agri economist Nathan Penny is generally one of the more optimistic forecasters but the ongoing sluggishness of the Chinese recovery is causing concern. And it has resulted in Westpac lowering its 2023/24 milk price forecast to $7.80/kg. Nathan Penny says for many farmers, this would put the milk price below their break-even point. Penny is encouraged by farm balance sheets which he says are generally strong. Prices have fallen at 10 of the 14 dairy auctions to be down 22% in annual change terms. Fonterra’s forecast Farmgate Milk Price is $7.25 to $8.75 per kgMS, with a midpoint of $8.00 per kg. It will be updated at the end of August.
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